However, the latest wave of unrest in Mongolia carries ominous signs of a color revolution. As in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, social media are active in stirring up protests.
The protests began last week against the “coal mafia,” which has allegedly been profiteering from doing business with Chinese companies. But various conspiracy theories are spreading on Twitter, including that there would be an internal power struggle among the ruling party elites.
The geopolitical stakes are high. Mongolia is the transit country for the proposed Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline channeling up to 50 billion cubic meters of gas from the Yamal Peninsula in the Russian Arctic to eastern China, and the construction work is due to start in 2024.
Similarly, China, Mongolia and Russia have extended the Outline of the Development Plan on Establishing the China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor by five years, which will unleash great economic potential and upgrade Mongolia’s role as a transit hub.
The US and the EU will do their utmost to wean Mongolia away from the Sino-Russian orbit, no matter what it takes. Interestingly, a NATO military delegation from Brussels traveled to Ulaanbaatar early this month and held two days of talks with Mongolian military leaders.
Mongolia presents a combustible mix where all the key elements of the United States’ confrontation with Russia and China are present, ranging from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s mission creep to the Asia-Pacific to the BRI and Russia’s energy exports and of course the vast deposits of rare earths in the steppe.
This article was produced in partnership by Indian Punchline and Globetrotter, which provided it to Asia Times.
M K Bhadrakumar is a former Indian diplomat. Follow him on Twitter @BhadraPunchline.
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